The awards season kicks off in earnest, with stars from both television and film converging for the Golden Globe Awards January 6, but who’s going home with gold?
This was a huge year for film in many ways, with “Black Panther” transcending genre and becoming the first superhero film to score a nomination for Best Film (Drama), while both Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga earned nominations for their first times — his directing and hers acting — on “A Star Is Born.” The latter is expected to do quite well, while “Panther” is more of a wild card.
On the television side, it’s hard to imagine “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” not continuing its winning streak begun at the Emmys in 2018. But the big question is if the HFPA will award “The Americans” in its final outing, with “Game of Thrones” out of contention, and just how much “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” will dominate the limited series categories.
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is a conglomerate of approximately 90 international journalists making the Globes one of the most challenging awards shows of the whole season to predict, but that didn’t stop us. Over the past 75 years, there have been some things we’ve noticed.
The HFPA loves inviting big Hollywood star to their awards show, and they love subverting expectations with unexpected nominees and winners. We expect some surprising upsets on the night, thought it’s hard to imagine some favorites not emerging victorious.
Below are our picks for the television and film categories at the 76th Annual Golden Globe Awards, airing January 6 at 8 p.m. ET on NBC.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Patricia Clarkson, “Sharp Objects”
Penelope Cruz, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
Thandie Newton, “Westworld”
Yvonne Strahovski, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
With the Golden Globes combining supporting roles across all categories, these are always the wildest to predict. And this particular grouping has the 2018 comedy and drama Emmy winners in Thandie Newton and Alex Borstein, respectively. It’s so bizarre to try and compare such disparate performances as Borstein and, say, Yvonne Strahovski’s complex turn in “The Handmaid’s Tale.” Robbed of an Emmy, she turned in the most challenging work of her career and really stood at the center of the show’s second season. We suspect “Versace” will get plenty of love elsewhere, and “Sharp Objects” was more of a chore than a delight, despite some great performances and mood, so it really comes down to Strahovski and our Emmy winners. The HFPA does love to make unpredictable selections here.
Should Win: Yvonne Strahovski, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Will Win: Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin, “The Kominsky Method”
Kieran Culkin, “Succession”
Edgar Ramirez, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
Ben Whishaw, “A Very English Scandal”
Henry Winkler, “Barry”
Kieran Culkin’s amoral business empire heir is the breakout star of “Succession,” but as the lone nominee for the HBO drama, the HFPA doesn’t seem to love the challenging series about the disturbingly wealthy enough to award him a trophy. Same goes for Arkin, who is better than the show he’s on. Edgar Ramirez is passable on “Versace” as the title character, but his is not the most compelling story by far, and we don’t see a sweep for the miniseries. And while Ben Whishaw is brilliant as a fearless — and slightly reckless — gay man at a time when that was not always a good idea, is he or the show big enough? Meanwhile, Henry Winkler’s career-redefining role in “Barry” earned him his first Emmy and a standing ovation earlier this year (he already has two Golden Globes for his work on “Happy Days”), so the HFPA may be looking to continue those good vibrations.
Should Win: Ben Whishaw, “A Very English Scandal”
Will Win: Henry Winkler, “Barry”
Best Actress (Limited Series or Movie Made for Television)
Amy Adams, “Sharp Objects”
Patricia Arquette, “Escape at Dannemora”
Connie Britton, “Dirty John”
Laura Dern, “The Tale”
Regina King, “Seven Seconds”
Regina King stunned everyone when she took the Emmy for her performance in “Seven Seconds,” but she was one of the few bright spots in a somewhat pedantic script. The same goes for Amy Adams in the disappointing “Sharp Objects,” though she added a striking complexity that was compelling to watch. Britton and Arquette feel like picks that are here because the HFPA has loved them in prior roles (“Friday Night Lights” and “Medium,” respectively). Honestly, Laura Dern is so raw and honest and broken and utterly brilliant in “The Tale,” this should be a slam dunk. Many thought she should have won the Emmy, so we’re thinking the HFPA might correct that mistake.
Should Win: Laura Dern, “The Tale”
Will Win: Laura Dern, “The Tale”
Best Actor (Limited Series or Movie Made for Television)
Antonio Banderas, “Genius: Picasso”
Daniel Bruhl, “The Alienist”
Darren Criss, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “Patrick Melrose”
Hugh Grant, “A Very English Scandal”
This might be the easiest category of the night. Hugh Grant does a great job playing against type for “A Very English Scandal,” but he’s outshined by Ben Whishaw, who could surprise with a supporting win. We don’t think “The Alienist” really garnered enough attention for Daniel Bruhl to stand out above his more well-known counterparts, while Benedict Cumberbatch and Antonio Banderas are the “famous” nominations (though both were transformative performances). Still, this one should be a slam-dunk for Darren Criss, who embodied serial killer Andrew Cunanan with a sinister, tragic and deranged humanity we could not take our eyes off of. Already an Emmy winner, we expect follow-up gold.
Should Win: Darren Criss, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
Will Win: Darren Criss, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)
Kristen Bell, “The Good Place”
Candice Bergen, “Murphy Brown”
Alison Brie, “GLOW”
Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Debra Messing, “Will & Grace”
No offense to either actress, but Debra Messing and Candice Bergen are here because they are television legends and the HFPA knows it. They are perfectly fine in their respective roles, but neither of them elevated the form and pushed envelopes like the other three women. Alison Brie is underrated and underappreciated in Netflix’s glorious exploration of women in wrestling, but Rachel Brosnahan has stolen all the streaming buzz with her breakout role as a woman standup comic at a time when that was rare … okay, even more rare. She’ll probably follow up her Emmy win with another, but that’s selling Kristen Bell short, who brings so much charm and spunk and character to one of the most unusual shows on television. “The Good Place” is so ingeniously surreal and bizarre, it needs the brilliance of both Bell and Ted Danson to hold it together and keep audiences following along.
Should Win: Kristen Bell, “The Good Place”
Will Win: Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)
Sacha Baron Cohen, “Who Is America?”
Jim Carrey, “Kidding”
Michael Douglas, “The Kominsky Method”
Donald Glover, “Atlanta”
Bill Hader, “Barry”
We’re not sure the HFPA completely gets what Sacha Baron Cohen was doing, and we think they’re probably even more confused by Jim Carrey’s uncomfortable “comedy” series. The nominations for both are a bit of a surprise, honesetly, but they’re also about as far as either will likely go. Carrey’s could be the star power factor, which also explains Michael Douglas’ presence for a very okay series elevated by him and Alan Arkin’s talent. “Atlanta” remains brilliant, but really lost a lot of momentum after the Emmys dumped on it, while Bill Hader scored the Emmy for showing a more dramatic side. Yes, this is a comedy, but the HFPA likes to be hip and award new shows and they love to acknowledge performers showing a different side. Plus, Hader is kind of brilliant.
Should Win: Jim Carrey, “Kidding”
Will Win: Bill Hader, “Barry”
Best Actress (Drama)
Caitriona Balfe, “Outlander”
Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Sandra Oh, “Killing Eve”
Julia Roberts, “Homecoming”
Keri Russell, “The Americans”
A very stacked category, it would be nice to think that Sandra Oh is going to take this one for the tragically underwatched “Killing Eve,” but she’s got some very stiff competition. Elisabeth Moss has been an awards show darling for year, but her show lost some of its luster in its second year, while she was outperformed by Yvonne Strahovski. Julia Roberts is a legend and Caitriona Balfe headlines one of the smartest romance shows on television, while Keri Russell has been nominated for all kinds of awards and never won. One of the most brilliant shows of the last decade or more, “The Americans” finally got nominated for Best Series in its final season, so could that mean she’ll finally gets her due? We’re not so sure as Oh is riding a million awards nominations and more buzz after its debut season.
Should Win: Keri Russell, “The Americans”
Will Win: Sandra Oh, “Killing Eve”
Best Actor (Drama)
Jason Bateman, “Ozark”
Stephan James, “Homecoming”
Richard Madden, “Bodyguard”
Billy Porter, “Pose”
Matthew Rhys, “The Americans”
Matthew Rhys is coming of a surprise Emmy win for his work, and this is the HFPA’s last chane to give the show any kind of love. We have a hard time imagining anyone not named Julia Roberts winning for “Homecoming” unless she wins first, and we don’t see that happening. British import “Bodyguard” screams the HFPA, but there’s nothing groundbreaking or fresh about it. It’s just a well-executed drama (still if there is going to be a surprise, our money’s on him). Billy Porter is part of an ensemble and doesn’t really stand out as enough of a lead to take the attention away from the more well-known Jason Bateman and Rhys. That said, “Ozark” has been racking up nominations at various awards shows, but only has one minor win under its belt. We suspect it will be a slow burn to victory like for “The Americans.”
Should Win: Matthew Rhys, “The Americans”
Will Win: Matthew Rhys, “The Americans”
Best Limited Series or Movie Made for Television
“The Alienist” (TNT)
“The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” (FX) – EMMY
“Escape at Dannemora” (Showtime)
“Sharp Objects” (HBO)
“A Very English Scandal” (Amazon)
Honestly, this category seems like a foregone conclusion. “Sharp Objects” was a boutique piece that fell flat in execution, “The Alienist” didn’t quite rise to the occasion, while “Escape at Dannemora” flew very under the radar. “A Very English Scandal” was compelling and got some amazing performances from its cast, so it could be a contender here, and especially with the HFPA voting. But it’s still hard to picture anything more deserving than “The Assassination of Gianni Versace,” which was absolutely must-see TV from start to finish.
Should Win: “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
“”Will Win:** “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
Best Series (Musical or Comedy)
“The Good Place” (NBC)
“The Kominsky Method” (Netflix)
_”The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon)
Another category that seems likely to follow the Emmys, even though there are some solid contenders. Oddly enough, several of these shows are here primarily for the great performances of their cast, but the shows themselves aren’t nearly as strong as a whole. That goes for “The Kominsky Method,” which is too generic, “Barry” and “Kidding.” Jim Carrey and Frank Langella (robbed of a nomination) are brilliant, but the show is so dark around them it could be a turn-off. The dark horse here would have to be “The Good Place,” which is one of the most brilliantly bizarre series on television, but it’s also a network show and not quite boutique enough to ever rise above its station in the eyes of awards shows, which is a tremendous shame.
Should Win: “The Good Place”
Will Win: “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Best Series (Drama)
It’s shocking that “The Handmaid’s Tale” was left out, but still this is an incredibly tough category. It’s the last chance to honor “The Americans,” but at the same time, “Killing Eve” is coming in with a tremendous amount of buzz. We don’t think “Pose” is quite polished enough to win this category, while “Homecoming” is a bit too reliant on Julia Roberts for its best moments. “Bodyguard” is a quintessential British show, which again could influence the HFPA, but we don’t think it will this year. Plus, did you know “Killing Eve” is technically a British co-production and it was on more recently and Sandra Oh is a revelation (we knew she was great) and the show subverts expectations at every turn. Yeah, it’s probably a lock, after all.
Should Win: “The Americans”
Will Win: “Killing Eve”
Best Original Song
“All the Stars,” Kendrick Lamar, SZA, “Black Panther”
“Girl in the Movies,” Dolly Parton, “Dumplin'”
“Requiem For a Private War,” Annie Lennox, “A Private War”
“Revelation,” Troye Sivan, Jonsi, “Boy Erased”
“Shallow,” Lady Gaga, Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
It’s not every year that “Best Original Song” is one of the more compelling categories at the Golden Globes, but this one is absolutely huge. Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga poured their hearts into “Shallow” and came up with a beautiful dirge that was fundamental to the film, while Kendrick Lamar and SZA captured the magic perfectly of one of the biggest films of the year. But then we got Dolly Parton writing a new song for a movie about the power of her music. We’re not seeing enough enthusiasm for either Annie Lennox (though she is a music legend) and Troye Sivan, so we think it comes down to those three, and it’s a real toss-up which way the HFPA might go.
Should Win: “Shallow,” Lady Gaga, Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Will Win: “Girl in the Movies,” Dolly Parton, “Dumplin'”
Best Original Score
Marco Beltrami, “A Quiet Place”
Alexandre Desplat, “Isle of Dogs”
Ludwig Göransson, “Black Panther”
Justin Hurwitz, “First Man”
Marc Shaiman, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Another surprisingly tough category, with the joyous “Mary Poppins Returns” battling it out most likely with “Isle of Dogs.” The HFPA loves Alexandre Desplat, though we don’t think the score was as fundamental to the film. “Poppins” is a musical but might be a little too bright for the HFPA, “Black Panther” used their score to help create a whole new world, and sound was the heart and soul of “A Quiet Place.” Every sound was carefully crafted to build the tension and create a horror movie experience unlike anything we’ve heard before. Both are worthy champions, but neither are likely to win.
Should Win: Ludwig Goransson, “Black Panther”
Will Win: Alexandre Desplat, “Isle of Dogs”
Best Picture (Foreign Language)
“Never Look Away”
Honestly, we just threw this in there to note that “Roma” is one of the best-reviewed films of the year. Alfonso Cuaron is a HFPA favorite, winning the Globe for “Gravity” in 2014, and this piece is a semi-autobiographical exploration of his own upbringing and it is utterly captivating and beautifully realized and earned him both directing and writing nomination this year, too. That said, we won’t pretend to have enough knowledge of the other nominees to hazard an educated guess, but it’s still hard to imagine anything beating this passion project. Also, we didn’t just want to leave one category out.
Should Win: “Roma”
Will Win: “Roma”
Best Picture (Animated)
“Isle of Dogs”
“Ralph Breaks the Internet”
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
An interesting and eclectic mix of films, Wes Anderson’s stop-motion “Isle of Dogs” is just weird enough it might be right up the alley of the HFPA, but it didn’t make a huge splash in the States. The same goes for “Mirai,” which is a brilliantly bizarre Japanese film. Foreign animated films have done well with the HFPA, but there are two very strong American contenders, and “Ralph Breaks the Internet” was a huge hit. “Incredibles 2” continued Pixar’s grand tradition of great sequels, but it’s “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” that was truly groundbreaking when it comes to the form of animation. It created a new comic-book visual approach like nothing we’ve seen before, and had a great story and great voice casting to boot.
Should Win: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Will Win: “Isle of Dogs”
Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”
Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara, “The Favourite”
Barry Jenkins, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Adam McKay, “Vice”
Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, “Green Book”
“Roma” has a strong chance in a category filled with compelling films that didn’t necessarily have the strongest screenplays. “Vice” was far too busy, trying to be everything to everyone, while “Green Book” was a little too rote. “If Beale Street Could Talk” might be a little too boutique even for the HFPA, meaning it comes down to “The Favourite” and “Roma,” with the former earning accolades for its wonderful script and performances. We could easily see the HFPA rewarding the sharp and biting script for this female-lead tour de force that flew mostly under the radar of most American moviegoers, but we also suspect Cuaron may be unstoppable on the night.
Should Win: Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara, “The Favourite”
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”
Peter Farrelly, “Green Book”
Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Adam McKay, “Vice”
This is one of the tightest races on the night, with an argument possible for every contender. That said, Spike Lee has given us one of his best-ever films, but it’s still weighed down by what appears to simply be trying too hard to be “important” behind the camera. Adam McKay and Peter Farrelly both turned in serviceable work, but the direction of both “Roma” and “A Star is Born” helped elevate both films into something truly special. Honestly, the HFPA wouldn’t be wrong to just throw another Globe at Alfonos Cuaron, but it might be tempting to reward Bradley Cooper for his first film as a director. He’s a big movie star, and he managed to make something truly remarkable with another newbie on-camera in Lady Gaga. The film is both triumphant and heartbreaking, though perhaps lacking some of the depth and style of “Roma.” But only one of the two got a Best Picture nom here.
Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”
Will Win: Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Claire Foy, “First Man”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
Regina King is a Globes favorite, but the same could be said for many of the women in this tough category. Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz have the disadvantage of competing from the same film, which can often split votes and hurt both. Claire Foy has mesmerized viewers on “The Crown,” so could upset here, as could amy Adams, though “Vice” has proven more polarizing politically than many expected going into it (though if they’re into that, “Vice” could have a very good night). Stone and Weisz were almost equally brilliant, alongside Olivia Colman (up for lead), which will more than likely give the edge to the well-deserving King.
Should Win: Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Will Win: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Timothee Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”
Sam Rockwell embodies George W. Bush perfectly, but we’re still not sure the HFPA will step into the fray with “Vice,” especially with such performances as Mahershala Ali and Timothee Chalamet to choose from. The young Chalamet didn’t win for his heart-wrenching performance in “Call Me By Your Name” last year but this was an even more compelling performance. Mahershala Ali proved his strength in subtlety with beautifully nuanced work in the racially charged period piece, while Adam Driver brought racism to the present day with a deeply uncomfortable undercover performance. Alas, poor Richard E. Grant, just didn’t stand out enough opposite Melissa McCarthy.
Should Win: Timothee Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy”
Will Win: Timothee Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy”
Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)
Emily Blunt, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Elsie Fisher, “Eighth Grade”
Charlize Theron, “Tully”
Constance Wu, “Crazy Rich Asians”
Olivia Colman is going to be tough to beat here as the HFPA loves anyone who plays the Queen of England. Charlize Theron was the best part of “Tully,” she wasn’t great enough to transcend the fact the HFPA basically ignored her film otherwise. That said, Elsie Fisher was painfully authentic in “Eighth Grade,” and also the only part of her film to receive recognition, despite near-universal acclaim for writer/director Bo Burnham. She’ll have to be happy with a nomination, as will the continuously and criminally overlooked Constance Wu, who held together the madcap “Crazy Rich Asians” effortlessly. Emily Blunt also feels like a longshot, even though she stepped into shoes no one thought could ever be touched and really brought “Mary Poppins Returns” to life.
Should Win: Constance Wu, “Crazy Rich Asians’
Will Win: Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
Robert Redford, “The Old Man & the Gun”
John C. Reilly, “Stan & Ollie”
While “Vice” is a polarizing film and deeply flawed structurally and content-wise, there is no denying that Christian Bale’s transformation into Dick Cheney is nothing short of stunning. Robert Redford is a cinema legend, and Viggo Mortensen did a wonderful job opposite Mahershala Ali, but it didn’t feel as powerfully authentic. The same can be said for Lin-Manuel Miranda, who suffers from the HFPA lumping drama and comedy together for this category. And while John C. Reilly did a fantastic job as Oliver Hardy in “Stan & Ollie,” we’re not sure enough people watched the film, he’s getting panned for “Holmes & Watson,” and when it comes to embodying a real person, no one can touch what Bale did this year.
Should Win: Christian Bale, “Vice”
Will Win: Christian Bale, “Vice”
Best Actress (Drama)
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Nicole Kidman, “Destroyer”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Rosamund Pike, “A Private War”
This category is positively stuffed with established movie stars the HFPA has been fawing over for years. Glenn Close pulls us into her tormented “Wife,” while Nicole Kidman continues to destroy expectations with her roles, and brings one of her darkest characters yet to life in “Destroyer.” Melissa McCarthy proves she’s more than just a comedian, while still bringing laughs, while Rosamund Pike could be the media’s favorite for her raw and unflinching portrayal of a war correspondent. But it’s Lady Gaga who took the world by storm in her first film role, blowing critics away from day one. It would be shocking for anyone else to win.
Should Win: Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Will Win: Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Best Actor (Drama)
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Lucas Hedges, “Boy Erased”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
John David Washington, “BlacKkKlansman”
Surpassing Christian Bale even, no one embodied a living person better than Rami Malek as Queen frontman Freddie Mercury in “Bohemian Rhapsody.” So compelling was he in the role, the deeply problematic script won’t even be enough to stop him from winning this category; perhaps the most slam-dunk on the night. Lucas Hedges is tragically beautiful in “Boy Erased,” and John David Washington was solid in another real-life role, but it wasn’t a larger-than-life transformation, and Willem Dafoe failed to captivate as much as Vincent Van Gogh. Only Bradley Cooper has an outside shot here, thanks to the love of his passion project, but we think the HFPA will be satisfied to award Lady Gaga instead.
Should Win: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Will Win: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)
“Crazy Rich Asians”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
We’re just not buying that “Mary Poppins Returns” is going to be deemed a winner in 2018; it’s just too old-school Disney and that kind of filmmaking hasn’t been rewarded in decades. “Vice” is too slapdash of a production, held together by powerful performances, but that’s not enough to win. That leaves likely favorites “Green Book” and “The Favourite,” who will have the edge over the brilliant “Crazy Rich Asians.” As more dramatic period pieces, they feel more important, and “The Favourite” is made up of all the ingredients the HFPA loves. But don’t count “Crazy” out, as it really is one of the sharpest and smartest romantic comedies we’ve seen in years, and no one would be mad at the HFPA for awarding such a groundbreaking production.
Should Win: “Crazy Rich Asians”
Will Win: “The Favourite”
Best Picture (Drama)
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“A Star Is Born”
If the HFPA doesn’t go with the obvious choice, this could be a truly compelling and exciting award to finish the night on. “Bohemian Rhapsody” is too deeply flawed but Europe loves Queen in a way Americans don’t even understand. “If Beale Street Could Talk” doesn’t quite hold together as well as some of the other contenders, while “BlacKkKlansman” may be too provocative for the HFPA. That leaves “Black Panther,” which transcended genre to become a groundbreaking global phenomenon. It’s a superhero movie with a real shot at an Oscar nomination, which says a lot. But no one in the cast was nominated, which probably gives the edge to the year’s most universally-acclaimed film.
Should Win: “A Star Is Born”
Will Win: “A Star Is Born”
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